The 2012 Presidential Election Cycle has officially begun with the recent Iowa Caucus and the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Election years always make my blood pressure harder to regulate. I can’t help the fact that I am passionate about this country. The last Presidential race and then the 2010 mid-term elections took a toll on me that I frankly didn’t think I would recover from. Yet, here I am again all fired up with another election year.
What is that sound I am hearing? It is the footsteps of all those political surrogates and volunteers marching out of Iowa and on to New Hampshire or South Carolina. The people of Iowa have had their chance to speak, after being courted by all the Republican candidates for the past 6 months. What do the voting results really say about this year’s race? The answer depends largely on which ear you listen to. I try to be unbiased, listen to both sides and think independently, but it is honestly hard to hide my conservative leanings. So what am I hearing about this year’s race so far?
Let’s start from the top with the “not so clear winner” Mitt Romney. Most pundits didn’t expect him to win, so the fact that he did was a bit of a surprise. I don’t consider a winning margin of 8 votes or 25% much to celebrate about. Especially when you consider he easily has the best financed campaign and a four year head start on the field. He basically garnered the same base of support he had four years ago and has remained steady while the other 75% of the voters danced with multiple partners and struggled to pick their date to the prom.
First we had Michelle Bachmann, who won the Iowa straw poll a few months ago and seemed to be the darling of the tea party conservatives. She stood her ground in the debates and successfully landed a few good blows to some of her opponents. She was probably the main reason Tim Pawlenty exited the race early. Her thunder seemed to dissipate with the entrance of Rick Perry. Perry quickly surged to the top only to later falter after a couple of poor debate performances. Now Bachmann is suspending her campaign and bowing out of the race. I hope she keeps her options open because I think she would be a pretty good Attorney General for the next President.
Rick Perry entered the race and became an instant top tier candidate primarily because of two things. He is very outspoken about his faith, which speaks to the evangelicals in Iowa and his 10 plus years of executive experience as Governor of Texas. Perry is quick to point out that Texas has continued to thrive economically during the recession and has created more jobs than the rest of the country combined during his tenure. While that may be true, it has happened because of policies that were in place before he took the reins. Texas is a right to work state, with no state income tax and business friendly laws. Perry has not polished his message enough to overcome a couple of debate blunders that caused him to slip dramatically in the polls. Perry has vowed to move forward and has strong financial backing, so don’t count him out.
When Perry slipped, Herman Cain thrust upon the scene with his 9-9-9 plan and common sense approach that quickly resonated with voters. The conservative base quickly got behind him thinking it had found an outsider with the charisma and leadership necessary to lead the country. Unfortunately, Mr. Cain succumbed to an onslaught of allegations of sexual misconduct. Most were never substantiated but didn’t have to be. The barrage effectively ran Mr. Cain out of town and sent the conservatives into a frenzy.
Next up to the plate, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Due in large part to stellar debate performances, Newt emerged as the new flavor of the week. The man definitely has the awareness and tenacity to handle the task at hand. His ideas are clear and concise on every major issue in the campaign and his directness and candor reflect the experience and wisdom of a man confident in his ability to lead. With over 30 years of public track record and many past transgressions, it wasn’t long before the negative ads began whittling down the pillars of strength that had been erected to portray Newt as the frontrunner. Finishing fourth in Iowa was a huge disappointment after having a near double-digit lead a few weeks ago. Newt is marching on and promising to take the gloves off for the next round.
Finishing third in Iowa was Texas Congressman Ron Paul. With a large faithful and passionate following of supporters, Paul has been holding his own against the other top tier candidates. His stances are the most unique of any candidate. His Libertarian views on State rights, the Federal Reserve and Constitutional Law have been embraced by many and are the core principles behind his support. His foreign policy views and a few odd statements he has made concerning Iran, illegal immigration, and the legalization of marijuana have kept a large number of conservatives from getting behind his candidacy. He has a loyal following of about a quarter of the party but will continue to struggle to attract the necessary broad support it takes to win the nomination.
The surprise of Iowa was former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Losing the Iowa caucuses by a mere 8 votes was a victory by any definition. Rick was underfunded compared to most of his rivals. His surge happened at the right time and his primary support came from the fact that he worked the hardest on the ground, covering all 99 counties of the state. This stealth operation snuck up on the competition and caught them totally off guard. That won’t happen again. The scrutiny will surely intensify moving forward. Will the reliance on grass roots effort carry him to continued success?
Here is my take on the current pulse of the race. Romney is being called the “25 per center” by Obama strategist David Axelrod. He has a point when you consider that four years ago he got about the same percentage and four years later the state isn’t much fonder of him even with his frontrunner status. Why is it Romney can’t seem to break through the threshold into the 30% range? That is an interesting question to ask, especially in Iowa. Many pundits make statements that he is viewed as too moderate, which is why he is enjoying a double-digit lead in more moderate New Hampshire. If that is the case, it shows enough vulnerability to be a concern to the Romney campaign. After all, Iowa has been a blue state in 7 of the last 8 elections.
Most veteran pundits offer the common strategy of winning the independent voters as a key to victory. They also claim that the majority of those independent voters are moderates. If that is the case, then Romney should have won Iowa in a landslide. The fact that he didn’t should dispel that theory. If you add up all the votes of Santorum, Paul, Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann you have 75% of the vote. All of those candidates are considered more conservative than Romney. It is clear that the conservatives far outnumber the moderates, at least in Iowa. The only reason there was not a clear and decisive winner is the division of the conservative vote among five candidates.
Until a clear choice emerges from among those five to unite the conservatives, Romney will continue to be at the top. If the Republicans really want to win in November, they need to unite behind the strongest of the five and merge their strengths into a winning platform of ideas that address the primary concerns of the people. Will that happen in South Carolina, Florida or beyond? Stay tuned, it could get interesting.
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